出版社：Institut za migracije i narodnosti / Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Zagreb
摘要：The paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia’s population, until the year 2031, determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from supposed hypotheses in regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively differences in birth and migration rates, since the assumptions in regard to the death rates are the same in all the variants. The corrected estimate of the population on January 1st 2001, according to the most recent census, served as the base population. The results of the projections indicate that in the next thirty years the overall and the natural population reduction of Croatia will continue, and at the end of the period (2031) the population will be demographically older than at the start (2001). The variants differ only in relation to the intensity (i.e. swiftness) of the aging process, yet the direction remains the same. Thus, in the variant that assumes a positive migration balance, the process of aging would be somewhat slower. The only variant that assumes a constant proportion of young people (on the 2001 level), gradual demographic growth and at the end of the period a larger population than in 2001, is the variant based on a high birth rate and positive migration. The impact of migration is very important for future demographic processes. Namely, in the short run, migration cannot change the direction of demographic processes, but it can lessen already existing negative trends.
关键词：projections; Croatia; fertility; death rate; migration; depopulation
