出版社：Institut za migracije i narodnosti / Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Zagreb
摘要：Present-day development of the population in East Croatia has inherited deeply rooted traces of its former – in many respects specific – demographic, social and economic development. Due to its physical relief, climatic-ecological, hydrogeographical, pedological, transportational-geographical, historical-political and socio-economic traits and determinants, the East Croatian area has had – despite periodic fluctuations – a very dynamic, and on the whole more prosperous demographic development than most other Croatian regions. One of the vital traits of contemporary population development in East Croatia, with complex cause-effect characteristics, is polarised population development, especially between urban and rural settlements/areas in the region. This is the result of a series of internal and external determinants of the demographic development of the area in the 20th century, many of which were disrupting and destabilizing factors in regard to normal and stabile population development. In this sense, it is especially important to note the influence of the World Wars and the Serbian aggression, of strong emigration, diseases, economic crises, agrarian reforms and, linked to this, population colonisations, reduction of the birth rate, demographic aging, etc. During the second part of the past century, the dominant factors of demographic development, apart from those just mentioned, were accelerated deagrarisation and deruralisation and intensive industrialisation and urbanisation. During the last decades, these processes became the dominant dynamic, spatial and structural processes in East Croatia, both in the demographic and socio-demographic sense. Development of the total population, as well as of urban and rural settlements in East Croatia, came to be characterised by more and more unfavourable demographic processes. This paper identifies the negative tendencies of demographic development in the domain of total population change (total depopulation), spatial distribution of the population, age-gender development (demographic aging) and the economic structure of the population. A continuation of unfavourable tendencies in the development of the total population and the urban and rural populations in East Croatia will bring about developmental regression in the area, which in fact means that demographic revitalisation and the termination of negative demographic processes imposes itself as a key developmental and strategic factor, and as the goal for the overall revitalisation and future development of the East Croatian area.
关键词：East Croatia; urban and rural settlements; deagrarisation; deruralisation; depopulation
