期刊名称：International Journal of Business and Management
印刷版ISSN：1833-3850
电子版ISSN：1833-8119
出版年度：2011
卷号：6
期号：5
页码：190
DOI：10.5539/ijbm.v6n5p190
出版社：Canadian Center of Science and Education
摘要：The paper deals with forecasting international tourists footfalls in India, applying an assortment of uni-variate time series forecasting models, for monthly data spreading over Dec 1990 to Jan 2010. The forecasting performance of various competing models is evaluated with MAPE and other criteria. Also the actual and forecasted values are compared since Feb 2010 to Sept 2010 for better evaluation. The SARIMA model performs better than other competing model for forecasting, with lowest MAPE value. In fact it has an advantage over other models as it explicates autoregressive and moving average process not only for the data series but also of seasonality. As a policy implication, SARIMA model can be used for forecasting tourists demand in India.
