期刊名称：Journal of Environmental Hydrology (ältere Jahrgänge)
印刷版ISSN：1058-3912
电子版ISSN：1996-7918
出版年度：2010
卷号：18
出版社：IAEH
摘要：The S�o Francisco river basin is the third largest drainage basin of Brazil and the only one entirely within its frontiers. To estimate and generate surface runoff values of the Sub-medium S�o Francisco Valley basin, a model was developed based on the identification and quantification of the main hydrologic processes. This model was used to create scenarios of the climatic change impacts on the surface runoff. The model simulated the water balance and estimated the surface runoff considering the precipitation variation and the potential evapotranspiration, and taking into account the soil depth, the physiographic characteristics, and the plant cover of the drainage basin. In general, when considering precipitation variability, evapotranspiration, plant cover and soil depth, porosity and hydraulic conductivity, the developed model showed a good response to the spatio-temporal variability of the surface runoff. The model was shown to effectively simulate scenarios of climate change impacts on the surface runoff of the basin. The sub-medium S�o Francisco Valley drainage basin does not show any trend of increase or reduction of the surface runoff between 1963 and 1988.
