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文章基本信息

  • 标题:Identifying States of a Financial Market
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Michael C. Münnix ; Takashi Shimada ; Rudi Schäfer
  • 期刊名称:Scientific Reports
  • 电子版ISSN:2045-2322
  • 出版年度:2012
  • 卷号:2
  • DOI:10.1038/srep00644
  • 出版社:Springer Nature
  • 摘要:

    The understanding of complex systems has become a central issue because such systems exist in a wide range of scientific disciplines. We here focus on financial markets as an example of a complex system. In particular we analyze financial data from the S&P 500 stocks in the 19-year period 1992–2010. We propose a definition of state for a financial market and use it to identify points of drastic change in the correlation structure. These points are mapped to occurrences of financial crises. We find that a wide variety of characteristic correlation structure patterns exist in the observation time window, and that these characteristic correlation structure patterns can be classified into several typical “market states”. Using this classification we recognize transitions between different market states. A similarity measure we develop thus affords means of understanding changes in states and of recognizing developments not previously seen.

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    © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

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