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  • 标题:Indian Ocean Dipole drives malaria resurgence in East African highlands
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Masahiro Hashizume ; Luis Fernando Chaves ; Noboru Minakawa
  • 期刊名称:Scientific Reports
  • 电子版ISSN:2045-2322
  • 出版年度:2012
  • 卷号:2
  • DOI:10.1038/srep00269
  • 出版社:Springer Nature
  • 摘要:

    Malaria resurgence in African highlands in the 1990s has raised questions about the underlying drivers of the increase in disease incidence including the role of El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, climatic anomalies other than the ENSO are clearly associated with malaria outbreaks in the highlands. Here we show that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Indian Ocean, affected highland malaria re-emergence. Using cross-wavelet coherence analysis, we found four-year long coherent cycles between the malaria time series and the dipole mode index (DMI) in the 1990s in three highland localities. Conversely, we found a less pronounced coherence between malaria and DMI in lowland localities. The highland/lowland contrast can be explained by the effects of mesoscale systems generated by Lake Victoria on its climate basin. Our results support the need to consider IOD as a driving force in the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands.

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    © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

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