摘要：In the Middle East, an area where pressure on water resources is intensified by political conflict and natural
scarcity, the possibility of future climate change looms
as yet another compounding factor. An integrated approach, taking economic, social, political and climate
factors into consideration, is embodied in the
CLIMSOC model. Before using global model data for a
future period as input into the regional scale CLIMSOC
model, the global climate model data must first be tested
for the present period. The work summarised here
examines monthly preeipitation data from a Hadley
Centre Global Climate Model, comparing it to an observed climatology, for the present period 1961–1990.
The differences between the GCM and observed data
are examined with an eye toward systematic discrepancies
among the different months, spatial patterns and
overall quantitative differences in preeipitation. Finally, a glimpse at future preeipitation, as estimated by the
global climate model, is presented in the context of the
comparison results.
