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文章基本信息

  • 标题:The Effect of Seasonal Adjustment on the Accuracy of Forecasting U.S. West Coast Oil Imports
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Imad A. Moosa ; Ronald D. Ripple
  • 期刊名称:Journal of Economic Research
  • 印刷版ISSN:1226-4261
  • 出版年度:2000
  • 卷号:5
  • 期号:2
  • 出版社:Hanyang Economic Research Institute
  • 摘要:

    A structural time series model is estimated for U.S. West Coast oil imports on the basis of seasonally unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data. The estimated model is used to generate sets of out-of-sample forecasts, with those generated from seasonally adjusted data re-seasonalised by adding the seasonal factors derived from the X-11 procedure. The quantitative measures of forecasting accuracy of the models do not show any improvement by switching from unadjusted to adjusted data. It is concluded that seas onal adjustment is not as detrimental to forecasting accuracy as it is often claimed.

  • 关键词:Seasonal adjustment; Structural time series modelling; X-11 procedure
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