摘要：Although the activity of monitoring of the industrial systems is nowadays recognized as a means of development of production and increase of the availability of the system; indeed, the model of monitoring has to hold in account the current state of the system and has to have the means of forecast to prevent the future state to manage well the strategy of maintenance. However, there are several aspects which limit the evolution of these activities among them the lack of knowledge on the system which prevent the development of classical analysis reliability (based on statistical). In this frame, the general purpose of this work is to propose a prognosis system which begins to control, at first time, data on the state of the system and secondly, the quality of products required and predicts the remaining useful life and the reliability by characterizing the uncertainty of the prognosis by using the belief functions. More exactly, the paper emphasizes on the development of a prognostic model that, not only "gives" an approximation of the degradation of equipment but also associates to it a belief measure.
关键词：Prognostic; Approach statistical; Monitoring; Reliability modeling; Test of Bayes; Belief;functions; Uncertainty
