摘要：In this paper, a new modeling approach incorporating both a new environmental multimedia system (EMS) and the Monte Carlo method (MCM) is developed as a tool for the risk assessment of contaminants. An EMS has been developed and validated by the use of field data and investigation to create a 3D simulation of current conditions of the Trail Road Landfill area. In addition, given the high level of uncertainty associated with EMS practices, the MCM approach is embedded into the developed EMS to deal with vague or imprecise model and site conditions related to uncertainties in the system. In this study, two emission rates were examined for risk assessment of Trail Road Landfill site in the years 2016 and 2026; the data are predicted on the basis of the known production trend from 2001 to 2006. The risk quotient (RQ) factors, combined with present and future rates of chemical pollution, provide spatial and temporal assessment of risk from the leachate in Trail Road Landfill site. Results of the risk assessment approach reveal that as the landfill or oil drilling site becomes depleted, adverse effects on the multimedia environment associated with benzene concentration occur, and the potential risk levels have been quantified for the Trail Road Landfill site. The present study indicates that the dispersion of a large volume of pollutants from the landfill or the oil drilling site poses possible risks to the regional multimedia environment. The new EMS will serve as a risk assessment tool to address the fate and transportation of pollutants in complex multimedia environments. This tool will also be useful in the management of the resulting environmental impacts.
关键词：Environmental Multimedia System (EMS); Monte Carlo Method (MCM); Risk Assessment; Multimedia Environments
