期刊名称：Journal of Software Engineering and Applications
印刷版ISSN：1945-3116
电子版ISSN：1945-3124
出版年度：2011
卷号：4
期号：8
页码：497-511
DOI：10.4236/jsea.2011.48058
出版社：Scientific Research Publishing
摘要：This study examines temporal patterns of software systems defects using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach. Defect reports from ten software application projects are analyzed; five of these projects are open source and five are closed source from two software vendors. Across all sampled projects, the ARIMA time series modeling technique provides accurate estimates of reported defects during software maintenance, with organizationally dependent parameterization. In contrast to causal models that require extraction of source-code level metrics, this approach is based on readily available defect report data and is less computation intensive. This approach can be used to improve software maintenance and evolution resource allocation decisions and to identify outlier projects—that is, to provide evidence of unexpected defect reporting patterns that may indicate troubled projects.
关键词：Open Source Software; Software Defects; Software Maintenance; Time Series Analysis
