摘要：Of the many challenges facing risk analysis practitioners, perhaps the most difficult to overcome is inthe field of terrorist threat analysis. When estimating the threat associated with naturally occurringevents, historical data provides a great deal of insight into the frequency of those events. Threatassociated with accidents applies many operations research tools to gauge future failure-rates (FailureMode and Effects Analysis being perhaps the most widely known). However, estimating theprobability of an individual's or group's attacking a specific (or even a generic) target is an element ofrisk analysis in which art and intuition are applied far more regularly than is science
