其他摘要：Ecological risk analysis is a new marginal subject that studies issues on risk theory, modern eco- logy and environmental science, etc. Currently, quantitative assessing and integrative study of ecological risk is a significant issue in the world. At the macrocosm scale we have a practice study on risk analysis based on the value of ecosystem services by integrating the quantification of the value of ecosystem services with the model of risk analysis. We establish an ecological risk analysis models: the model of ecological value at risk (EVR) and the information diffusion model. They provide a quantitative method for the ecological risk ana- lysis. The Zhoushan city was selected as an example for application of our study. According to the historical data of Zhoushan city (1985 - 2007), the emergy value of the ecosystem services was calculated and the value of ecological risk was estimated by using the EVR and information diffusion model. First, we calculate the value of EVR. Such as the confidence level is 95%, the value of EVR of the emergy value is 5.233E+21. Secondly, we evaluate the risk index of Zhoushan’s ecosystems. Finally, we evaluate the estimated value of ecosystem ser- vices at risk. When the given emergy value is 4.00E+21 sej, the estimated value is 1.0641, it means that the pro- bability of the emergy value at risk in next year bigger than 4.00E+21 sej is 1.0641.
关键词：生态风险分析;生态系统服务;能值
其他关键词：Ecological Risk Analysis; Value of Ecosystem Services; Emergy
