其他摘要：With the era of low-carbon economy, Chinais gradually implementing the sustainable development which is based on low energy consumption and low pollution, and has put forward the strategic target of energy conservation and emission reduction explicitly in “12th Five Year Plan”. Referencing the international research methods in the potential of energy-saving emission reduction, which combined SD model with LEAP model, the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in our country’s petroleum refining industry can be forecasted accurately. Firstly, based on SD model and the amount of energy consumption in industries, the requirements of oil production and refined products in current and future several years can be estimated. Secondly, putting the data and relevant indicators into LEAP model can get the baseline scenario and ideal scenario. Then, making a comparative analysis between the two scenarios and the reference scenario which come from the conclusions about existing conditions can find problems and potential. Finally, some relevant feasible suggestions are put forward.
关键词：系统动力学;LEAP模型;石油炼制;节能减排
其他关键词：System Dynamics; LEAP Model; Petroleum Refining; Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction
