摘要：Canada and the United States are two interdependent economies in the sense that bilateral trade flows remove demand and supply unbalances in each country and in the sense that more than 80 percent of that trade will be tariff-free after the implementation of the Tokyo Round agreements by 1987. However, there is more and more talk in Canada that the national industrial policy should move more aggressively towards free trade with the United States, either completely or along a sector-by-sector approach. If it were adopted, such a move would mark a basic departure From the original National Policy of 1879, which relied on tariff protection to establish "infant" industries in Canada by stimulating interregional trade along transport lines in an East-West manner. As a consequence, there has been a form of regional specialization in Canada: the Centre (i.e., Ontario, and to a certain extent Quebec) has developed a fairly diversified manufacturing sector, white the West and the Maritimes have seen their development more concentrated in the agricultural and resource sectors. As explained by the Eastman and Stykolt [15] hypothesis, Canadian consumers in ail regions have subsidized this development by paying higher prices for products. There are two reasons for this: first, Canadian producers have taken full advantage of the tariff tamark up prices in order to cover their higher costs of production due to smaller scales of operation; and second, since Canada is a large country, transport costs are high and must be reflected in prices (or in taxes when these are subsidized). The principal question is therefore the following: in the event of North American trade liberalization, will this pattern of industrial development in Canada be substantially changed (especially in favour of resource industries and to the detriment of manufacturing industries) under the assumption that Canada is relatively resource-abundant and relatively less capital and technology endowed7 If there were a widespread interregional reorganization of industries, this might result in structural ul1employment -the unemployment caused by changes in industrial composition. The welfare gains due to lower prices and higher efficiency couId then be counteracted by economic dislocations that could make the net result uncertain.
