摘要:Ba c k g r o u n d: Air pollution– mortality risk estimates are generally larger at longer-term, compared with short-term, exposure time scales.oB j e c t i v e: We compared associations between short-term exposure to black smoke (BS) and mor-tality with long-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants and with short-term exposure–mortality associations in the general population from which the cohorts were selected.Me t h o d s: We assessed short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the Renfrew–Paisley and Collaborative cohorts (using nested case–control data sets), and compared them with long-term exposure–mortality associations (using a multilevel spatiotemporal exposure model and survival analyses) and short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the general popu-lation (using time-series analyses).re s u l t s: For the Renfrew–Paisley cohort (15,331 participants), BS exposure–mortality associa-tions were observed in nested case–control analyses that accounted for spatial variations in pollution exposure and individual-level risk factors. These cohort-based associations were consistently greater than associations estimated in time-series analyses using a single monitoring site to represent gen-eral population exposure {e.g., 1.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1, 3.4%] vs. 0.2% (95% CI: 0.0, 0.4%) increases in mortality associated with 10-μg/m3increases in 3-day lag BS, respectively}. Exposure–mortality associations were of larger magnitude for longer exposure periods [e.g., 3.4% (95% CI: –0.7, 7.7%) and 0.9% (95% CI: 0.3, 1.5%) increases in all-cause mortality associated with 10-μg/m3increases in 31-day BS in case–control and time-series analyses, respectively; and 10% (95% CI: 4, 17%) increase in all-cause mortality associated with a 10-μg/m3increase in geo-metic mean BS for 1970–1979, in survival analy sis].co n c l u s i o n s: After adjusting for individual-level exposure and potential confounders, short-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants were of greater magnitude than in compara-ble general population time-series study analyses. However, short-term exposure–mortality associa-tions were substantially lower than equivalent long-term associations, which is consistent with the possibility of larger, more persistent cumulative effects from long-term exposures
关键词:air; associations; cohort; exposure–mortality; long term; pollution; short term; time-;series.