摘要：In this paper we evaluate the short and medium term impact of a very drastic actuarial reform of the Spanish pension system on labor force behavior of the Spanish elderly. For comparison purposes the recent 1997 reform and two versions of the 2002 Amendment are also evaluated.We find that these reforms, jointly with the demographic changes in place, reduce the current hazard rates or conditional probability of exiting the labor force by a amount ranging from small (in the case of the R97, which more or less represents current system) to large, in the case of the Actuarial reform.Although the results should be taken with the natural caution, we provide an optimistic scenario of the evolution of retirement patterns in the forthcoming years and show the effectiveness of the actuarial evaluation in increasing average retirement ages. However, joining our evidence with the one obtained in Boldrin and Jiménez-Martín (2002, 2006) these changes are not likely to reverse the long run financial trend of the Spanish Social Security system.
