摘要：A critical aspect of the role of intelligence, within the context of conflict situations involving nationallevel actors, is the reduction in uncertainty associated with ascertaining information relevant to policymakers. Structured techniques for intelligence analysis seek to reduce this uncertainty by theimplementation and use of stepwise methods in which each step within the process is transparent andthrough which the uncertainty generated by cognitive bias is limited. One such method, which servesas the contextual basis for this study, is the Lockwood Analytic Method for Prediction (LAMP). Thefocus of the study is the recasting of traditional implementation of this specific structured method forintelligence analysis within a simplified probabilistic framework using basic definitions and Bayes'theorem. The resultant is shown to one in which the original twelve steps are reduced to four andthrough which the metrics for uncertainty, focal events and event transposition are inherentlyencoded
