摘要：In post-Fukushima Japan, the government has presented three scenarios of nuclear power reduction (zero nuclear, 15% nuclear, and 20–25% nuclear), of which it has recently selected the zero nuclear energy scenario as its preferred option. The choice of energy strategy has significant implications for the Asian region as well as domestically. This paper examines these scenarios and the energy strategy as a whole with regards to its achievability and outcomes. The analysis is based on modeling of the existing energy system of Japan with projections based on the government strategy out to the 2030s. Under all the scenarios, it is likely that a small increase in energy security will be obtained, but the achievement of environmental commitments is less likely. The paper points out that, while largely internally consistent, the government's strategy does not consider cross-sectoral policy widely enough. A number of alternative integrated policy options are also presented which are proposed to enable greater potential for practical achievement of the government's goals. Ultimately, it is anticipated that an approach which involves much greater integration at domestic (rural–urban development), energy system wide (electric vehicle and decentralized energy integration into the energy supply grid) and regional (co-operation in development of resources in areas of contested ownership) levels, could enhance the energy supply security and stability of the region as well as Japan itself.
