摘要：A project consists of a number of interrelated tasks whose aim is to produce a specific result. A project risk analysis consists of analyzing schedule, cost risk, quality of the final product etc. A cost risk analysis consists of looking at the various costs associated with a project, their uncertainties and any risks or opportunities that may affect these costs. The distributions of cost are added up in a risk analysis to determine the uncertainty in the total cost of the project. A schedule risk analysis looks at the time required to complete the various tasks associated with a project, and the interrelationship between these tasks. In this paper we want to study the various risks associated with the project. We start this study with the assumption that a project's cost and duration are linked together and also cost elements and schedule durations are correlated. The normal uncertainties in the cost items are modelled by continuous distributions like the Pert or triangular distribution. For project schedule modelling the most flexible environment is spreadsheet. We are interested in building blocks that typically make up a schedule risk analysis (also a cost risk analysis) and then show how these elements are combined to produce a realistic model. In the same time we want implement software tools for run Monte Carlo simulations on standard project planning applications. Keywords
关键词：feedback loops; cascading risks; portfolios of risks; sensitivity analysis; Monte ;Carlo simulations; critical path analysis; ModelRisk software
