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  • 标题:Modelling the fluctuations of Brent oil prices by a probabilistic Markov chain
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Hamidreza Mostafaei ; Shaghayegh Kordnoori ; Mohammadmohsen Ostadrahimi
  • 期刊名称:Journal of Computations & Modelling
  • 印刷版ISSN:1792-7625
  • 电子版ISSN:1792-8850
  • 出版年度:2011
  • 卷号:1
  • 期号:2
  • 出版社:Scienpress Ltd
  • 摘要:

    Modelling of crude oil prices has been extensively made. In this paper, we concluded that the Brent oil prices follow a Markov chain. Moreover, we predict the model of fluctuating these prices from January 2004 to July 2010 by integrating the limit probability distribution of a Markov chain and Gumbel Max distribution. In this model, we analyze the trends of Brent oil prices from the short term to middle and long terms.

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