Focusing that consumers’ are apt to buy superior brand when they are accustomed or bored to use current brand, new analysis method is introduced. Before buying data and after buying data is stated using liner model. When above stated events occur, transition matrix becomes upper triangular matrix. In this paper, equation using transition matrix is extended to the second order lag and the method is newly re-built. These are confirmed by numerical examples. S-step forecasting model is also introduced. This approach makes it possible to identify brand position in the market and it can be utilized for building useful and effective marketing plan.