期刊名称：International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences
电子版ISSN：2222-6990
出版年度：2011
卷号：1
期号：3
页码：155-170
出版社：Human Resource Management Academic Research Society
摘要：In this study, we aim to evaluate effects of the 8-year war between Iran and Iraq (1980-1988) on economical indices of Iran .The underlying objective of the paper is to provide support for a model that predicts these macro economical variables with the GMDH-neural network method. The macro economical variables that we analyzed include: gross domestic production (GDP)-investment ¨C consumption- inflation- interest rate¨C net export- government budget .The results indicate that investment decreased, export was less than import therefore net export was negative, consumption in staple goods increased. Also, real interest rate increased and nominal interest rate decreased, government had deficit spending and finally, GDP reduced
关键词：modeling and forecasting ¨C macro economic variables- GMDH_ ;neural network
