期刊名称：Journal of Reliability and Statistical Studies
印刷版ISSN：0974-8024
电子版ISSN：2229-5666
出版年度：2009
卷号：2
期号：2
页码：105-111
出版社：Ankur Printing Palace
摘要：Integrative thinking patterns have brought about a significant change in our approachtowards analysis and applications of various statistical-informatics techniques in oursurroundings. The present human society transforming into Information Society has undergone atremendous metamorphosis from a mundane and monotonous survival to a more exotic andchallenging existence. This has revolutionized the overall scenario to the extent that the wholeliving system can now be thought of as a large-scale complex synergetic system constituting of Ndimensional vistas. Rural Agro System has always been the lifetime of the human civilization.Giving continuation to this trend, the present paper puts forward Bayesian-informatics approachdealing with socio-economic coordinates of Rural- Agro System.The present study attempts in the direction of examining posterior risk and theiranalysis with the hope that the Bayesian aggregate model would simulate behaviour of the realsystem at the highest level of accuracy possible under the employed modeling strategy. It hasbeen demonstrated that the Bayesian aggregate models are recursive in nature and they minimizethe posterior risk with respect to the time of the system at present. It has also been depicted thatthe time of minimum posterior risk does not correspond to the time of minimum relative risk, ascompared with General State Vector Linear Model (GSVLM) stated by Efraim Halfon [4]inTheoretical Systems Ecology: Advances and Case Studies
关键词：General State Vector Linear Model; Aggregate Model; Bayesian Aggregation;model; Posterior risk
