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  • 标题:Testing for the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Four Industrial Countries: A Revisitation
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Shyh-Wei Chen
  • 期刊名称:Economics Bulletin
  • 电子版ISSN:1545-2921
  • 出版年度:2010
  • 卷号:30
  • 期号:2
  • 页码:1474-1495
  • 出版社:Economics Bulletin
  • 摘要:In this article we re-examine the mean-reverting property of the current account for the US, the UK, Canada and France. This is important because a current account that is not a stationary process implies that the external debts are unsustainable. The empirical results show that the current account-GDP ratios for the four countries are non-stationary processes based on the traditional unit root test. Bierens' non-linear unit root test results show that these current account-GDP ratios could exhibit mean stationarity, trend stationarity and non-linear trend stationarity once we account for a more general specification of the non-linear deterministic components based on a Chebishev polynomials approximation. One should, therefore, be cautious when concluding that the current account is sustainable or unsustainable based upon the traditional unit root test since it overlooks the non-linear property intrinsic in the data
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