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  • 标题:Probabilistic population forecasts for Egypt
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Alkitkat, Huda Ragaa Mohamed
  • 期刊名称:African Population Studies
  • 印刷版ISSN:0850-5780
  • 出版年度:2011
  • 卷号:25
  • 期号:s1
  • 页码:127-143
  • 出版社:Union for African Population Studies
  • 摘要:Considering the importance of population forecast, as a basic tool for a wide range of decision makers and planners, this paper produces probabilistic population forecasts for Egypt during the period starting from 2006 to 2051. It depends mainly on experts' knowledge and arguments which can help to illustrate the uncertainties associated with future demographic trends. The results show that the total population of Egypt is likely to increase significantly over the coming 20 years, from about 73 million to over 100 million (97.12 and 103.5 million), with 95 percent uncertainty range).
  • 关键词:Fertility; mortality; probabilistic; forecasts; Egypt
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