期刊名称：Pertanika Journal of Social Sciences & Humanities
印刷版ISSN：0128-7702
电子版ISSN：2231-8534
出版年度：1985
卷号：8
期号：1
出版社：Universiti Putra Malaysia
摘要：This paper discusses an input-output projection model which has been used for indicative planning of the West Malaysian economy into 1985. The model projects the structure of the economy including output, investment and labour in 1985 given a level of aggregate domestic consumption likely to be utilised in the target year. The basic projection indicates that the growth rate in per capita private consumption of 4 per cent per annum assumed in the model appears infeasible, particularly in terms of investment and labour requirements. The advent of technological changes, however, results in substantial reduction in investment, labour and export requirements, thus increasing the proportion of consumption in Gross Domestic Product in the target year. An increase in export prices also reduces the level of capital formation, exports and labour required to sustain the projected growth rate in consumption. The analysis of implications of an import replacement policy shows that import substitution of manufactured goods reduces the strain on the economy. However, import-substitution is beneficial only up to a point where the price of domestically-produced manufactures is 10 per cent higher than the overseas prices.
关键词：Indicative planning; input-output projection model
