摘要：The objective of this study is to assess and measure the relative forecasting performance of local government expenditures in Community Policy Analysis Models (COMPAS) during periods of supply/demand disequilibrium. We evaluate whether a fiscal module under the COMPAS framework (an equilibrium model) fits better under a disequilibrium economic en-vironment. We find that both a simple na.ve model with one year lagged expenditure a nd a lagged expenditure model with revenue capacity variables significantly increased forecasting performance relative to the traditional supply/demand equilibrium model of the public sec-tor. We also found weak evidence suggesting that in cases where the equilibrium model is used in a cross-sectional setting, quantile regression may improve foreca sting performance given the heterogeneity in the quantity and quality of preferences in public services
