摘要：Coastal habitat alterations such as the loss of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) andhardening of shorelines could have cumulative effects on valuable fishery resources. To investigate thiseffect, we developed a multiscale modeling framework for blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) in the northernGulf of Mexico. Areal coverage of shoreline land cover and SAV for Mobile Bay, Alabama, were combinedwith information from small-scale biological studies and long-term, large-scale commercial fishery datato model the potential effects of marginal habitat losses on the blue crab fishery. We applied stochasticvariation in annual recruitment to the fishery to estimate probabilities for sustainable harvests underscenarios of habitat loss. The simulations suggested that, accumulated over large areas, relatively smalllocal losses of estuarine marsh edge and SAV habitats could have long-term negative effects on thesustainability of the fishery. Spatially extensive models are required to investigate the cumulative ecologicaleffects of many local environmental changes. The requisite scaling adds uncertainty and reduces precision,but if model parameters are accurate at each scale, accurate predictions of long-term outcomes andprobabilities are possible
关键词：Blue crab; Callinectes sapidus; fishery; Gulf of Mexico; habitat; population model
