摘要：It is vitally important to identify agroecosystems that may cease functioning because ofchanging climate or land degradation. However, identifying such systems is confounded on both conceptualand methodological grounds, especially in systems that are moving toward thresholds, a common trait ofdryland environments. This study explores these challenges by analyzing how a range of external pressuresaffect the vulnerability of dryland pastoral systems in the Kalahari. This is achieved by employing dynamicsystems modeling approaches to understand the pathways by which communities became vulnerable todrought. Specifically, we evaluate how external pressures have changed: (1) different agroecosystems'abilities to tolerate drought, i.e., ecosystem resilience; (2) rural communities' abilities to adapt to drought,mediated via their access to assets; and (3) the ability of institutions and policy interventions to play a rolein mediating drought-related crises, i.e., socio-political governance. This is done by reanalyzing ecologicaland participatory research findings along with farm-scale livestock offtake data from across the Kalahariin Botswana. An iterative process was followed to establish narratives exploring how external drivers ledto changes in agroecosystem resilience, access to assets, and the institutional capacity to buffer the system.We use "causal loop diagrams" and statistical dynamic system models to express key quantitativerelationships and establish future scenarios to help define where uncertainties lie by showing where thesystem is most sensitive to change. We highlight how that greater sharing of land management knowledgeand practices between private and communal land managers can provide 'win-win-win' benefits of reducingsystem vulnerability, increasing economic income, and building social capital. We use future scenarioanalyses to identify key areas for future studies of climate change adaptation across the Kalahari
