摘要：The ecology of host species is crucial for understanding the mechanisms of pathogentransmission and spread in complex multi-host systems. In this article, we use detailed observations of thehost community to develop and apply a new approach to mapping temporal variation in risk for avianinfluenza. Working in an extensive wetland system near Harare, Zimbabwe, we use the overlap in spaceand time of highly variable bird communities, combined with ecological risk factors, to assess the risk ofAvian Influenza viruses (AIV) maintenance and transmission between bird populations. The estimatedintroduction and maintenance risks associated with waterfowl populations at a given time are then multipliedby the level of interactions with neighboring domestic production systems during the same period. Thisapproach is used to develop hypotheses for the dynamics of the introduction and circulation of AIV strainsin waterfowl populations and as a way of understanding the potential role of "bridge" species at the wild/domestic interface. The novel approach presented here offers a potentially useful way to explore AIV risk,identify which wild bird species may be acting as reservoirs or vectors of pathogens at a local scale, andimprove local surveillance
关键词：Avian influenza; bridge species; community ecology; risk factor; wild/domestic interface
