摘要：Scenario planning can be invaluable for empowerment and learning in resource dependentcommunities. Pre-existing scenario planning methods call for collaboration between community members,but when cultural norms prevented men, women, and youth from coming together in the community ofUkupseni in Panama, the authors and community sought to devise an alternative method. The researchobjectives were twofold. First, to develop an alternative scenario planning method that would facilitatelearning among decision makers about community needs and perspectives, and second, to explore ways todirect desired futures. Instead of forecasting through community-wide collaboration and backcasting withthe creation of one vision through consensus, forecasting used individual interviews to create scenariosand backcasting was conducted separately with each of the six community groups (older women, youngwomen with children, young women without children, young men, older men including fishermen andlobster-catchers, and individuals with formal education) resulting in several visions. To unify the results,we created an organizational matrix that allowed the visions of different community groups to be compared.The organizational matrix allowed decision makers to observe that women and youth, the most marginalizedmembers of the community, had convergent visions that were very different from men whose perspectivesand knowledge are more often included in decision making
关键词：backcasting; collaboration; forecasting; Kuna Yala; scenario planning
