摘要：Contemporary policy making calls for scientific support to anticipate the possibleconsequences of optional policy decisions on sustainable development. This paper presents an analyticalframework for ex ante assessment of economic, social, and environmental impacts of policy driven landuse changes that can be used as an aid to policy making. The tasks were to (1) link policy scenarios withland use change simulations, (2) link land use change simulations with environmental, social, and economicimpacts through indicators, and (3) valuate the impacts in the context of sustainable development. Theoutcome was a basis for dialogue at the science-policy interface in the process of developing new policieson the European level that impact on land and land use. The analytical approach provides a logical threadfor ex ante impact assessment within the context of sustainable development, land use multifunctionality,and land use change and it provides a thorough discussion of achievements and open challenges related tothe framework. It concludes with considerations on the potential for using evidence based ex anteassessments in the process of policy development. The paper is complemented by a B-paper providingexemplary results from two applications of the framework: a financial reform scenario of the CommonAgricultural Policy of the European Union, and a bioenergy policy scenario for the case of Poland (Helminget al. 2011).
关键词：analytical framework; discussion tools; DPSIR-framework; ex ante impact assessment; land;use change; model-based tools; participatory assessment tools; policy development; sustainability
