摘要：Although climate change models project that communities in southern Europe may beexposed to increasing drought in coming years, relatively little is known about how socioeconomic factorswill exacerbate or reduce this problem. We assess how socioeconomic and policy changes have affecteddrought vulnerability in the Alentejo region of southern Portugal, where EU agricultural policy and theconstruction of a major dam have resulted in a shift from a land-extensive mixed agricultural system to theintensive production of irrigated grapes and olives. Following a dynamic systems approach, we use bothpublished socioeconomic data and stakeholder interviews to present a narrative account of how thistransition has increased the region's vulnerability to drought. To explore the assumptions made in thenarrative, and to present different possible future scenarios, we create a dynamic systems model, the resultsof which suggest that socioeconomic drivers will play a more important role than projected rainfall changesin increasing vulnerability in the future
关键词：climate change; drought; Portugal; system dynamics modeling; vulnerability
