摘要：Historically, pastoral people were able to more freely use the services their semi-arid andarid ecosystems provide, and they adapted to changes in ways that improved their well-being. More recently,their ability to adapt has been constrained due to changes from within and from outside their communities.To compare possible responses by pastoral communities, we modeled ecosystem services and tied thoseservices to decisions that people make at the household level. We created an agent-based household modelcalled DECUMA, joined that model with the ecosystem model SAVANNA, and applied the linked modelsto southeastern Kajiado District, Kenya. The structure of the new agent-based model and linkages betweenthe models are described, and then we demonstrate the model results using a scenario that shows changesin Maasai well-being in response to drought. We then explore two additional but related scenarios,quantifying household well-being if access to a grazing reserve is lost and if access is lost but those mostaffected are compensated. In the second scenario, households in group ranches abutting the grazing reservethat lost access had large declines in livestock populations, less food energy from animal sources, increasedlivestock sales and grain purchases, and increased need for supplemental foods. Households in more distantareas showed no changes or had increases in livestock populations because their herds had fewer animalswith which to compete for forage. When households neighboring the grazing reserve were compensatedfor the lease of the lands they had used, they prospered. We describe some benefits and limitations of theagent-based approach
