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  • 标题:Are We Entering an Era of Concatenated Global Crises?
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Duan Biggs ; Reinette (Oonsie) Biggs ; Vasilis Dakos
  • 期刊名称:Ecology and Society
  • 印刷版ISSN:1708-3087
  • 电子版ISSN:1708-3087
  • 出版年度:2011
  • 卷号:16
  • 期号:2
  • 出版社:The Resilience Alliance
  • 摘要:An increase in the frequency and intensity of environmental crises associated withaccelerating human-induced global change is of substantial concern to policy makers. The potential impacts,especially on the poor, are exacerbated in an increasingly connected world that enables the emergence ofcrises that are coupled in time and space. We discuss two factors that can interact to contribute to such anincreased concatenation of crises: (1) the increasing strength of global vs. local drivers of change, so thatchanges become increasingly synchronized; and (2) unprecedented potential for the propagation of crises,and an enhanced risk of management interventions in one region becoming drivers elsewhere, because ofincreased connectivity. We discuss the oil-food-financial crisis of 2007 to 2008 as an example of aconcatenated crisis with origin and ultimate impacts in far removed parts of the globe. The potential for afuture of concatenated shocks requires adaptations in science and governance including (a) an increasedtolerance of uncertainty and surprise, (b) strengthening capacity for early detection and response to shocks,and (c) flexibility in response to enable adaptation and learning
  • 关键词:concatenation; connectivity; crisis; disaster; food price crisis; governance; learning;thresholds
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