摘要：A common challenge facing land use planning is assessment of the future performance ofland use options. The challenge can be acute in developing regions where land use is expanding rapidlyand funding and data needed for planning are scarce. To inform land use planning for a biosphere reservelocated in Paraguay's Atlantic forest region, a scenario analysis explored the relative merits of conventionaland conservation agricultural practices, sustained yield forestry, and protection. Simulations compared thelong-term impacts on land cover, biotic carbon, and income of the area's residents. Ecological and economicdecline were projected under conventional practices. Protection and forestry scenarios achieved only smallrelative improvements to ecological indicators at the cost of reduced economic performance. By addressingthe underlying issue of land degradation, conservation agriculture including no-tillage was the mostsuccessful land use strategy both ecologically and economically. Identification of conservation agricultureas the most promising land use strategy prioritizes issues that must be addressed to achieve sustainability,most importantly the provision of education and funding to smallholder farmers. We conclude that scenarioanalysis offers a flexible strategy to integrate available data for the purpose of informing land use planningin data-limited regions such as Paraguay's Atlantic forest
关键词：Atlantic forest; conservation agriculture; deforestation; land use planning; Paraguay; scenario;analysis; simulation
