摘要：Feedback mechanisms are important in the analysis of vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems,as well as in the analysis of livelihoods, but how to evaluate systems with direct feedbacks has been a great challenge. Weapplied fuzzy cognitive mapping, a tool that allows analysis of both direct and indirect feedbacks and can be used to explorethe vulnerabilities of livelihoods to identified hazards. We studied characteristics and drivers of rural livelihoods in the GreatLimpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area in southern Africa to assess the vulnerability of inhabitants to the different hazardsthey face. The process involved four steps: (1) surveys and interviews to identify the major livelihood types; (2) description ofspecific livelihood types in a system format using fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), a semi-quantitative tool that models systemsbased on people's knowledge; (3) linking variables and drivers in FCMs by attaching weights; and (4) defining and applyingscenarios to visualize the effects of drought and changing park boundaries on cash and household food security. FCMs successfullygave information concerning the nature (increase or decrease) and magnitude by which a livelihood system changed underdifferent scenarios. However, they did not explain the recovery path in relation to time and pattern (e.g., how long it takes forcattle to return to desired numbers after a drought). Using FCMs revealed that issues of policy, such as changing situations atborders, can strongly aggravate effects of climate change such as drought. FCMs revealed hidden knowledge and gave insightsthat improved the understanding of the complexity of livelihood systems in a way that is better appreciated by stakeholders.
