摘要：Setting social, economic, and ecological objectives is ultimately a process of social choice informed by science.In this special feature we provide a multidisciplinary framework for the use of cumulative effects assessment in land use planning.Forest ecosystems are facing considerable challenges driven by population growth and increasing demands for resources. In asuite of case studies that span the boreal forest of Western Canada to the interior Atlantic forest of Paraguay we show howtransparent and defensible methods for scenario analysis can be applied in data-limited regions and how social dimensions ofland use change can be incorporated in these methods, particularly in aboriginal communities that have lived in these ecosystemsfor generations. The case studies explore how scenario analysis can be used to evaluate various land use options and highlightspecific challenges with identifying social and ecological responses, determining thresholds and targets for land use, andintegrating local and traditional knowledge in land use planning. Given that land use planning is ultimately a value-laden andoften politically charged process we also provide some perspective on various collective and expert-based processes foridentifying cumulative impacts and thresholds. The need for good science to inform and be informed by culturally appropriatedemocratic processes calls for well-planned and multifaceted approaches both to achieve an informed understanding of bothresidents and governments of the interactive and additive changes caused by development, and to design action agendas toinfluence such change at the ecological and social level
关键词：cumulative effects; forest ecosystems; governance; scenario models; social indicators
