摘要：High-latitude coral reefs may be a refuge and area of reef expansion under climate change. As these locations areexpected to become dryer and as livestock and agricultural yields decline, coastal populations may become increasingly dependenton marine resources. To evaluate this social–ecological conundrum, we examined the Grand Récif of Toliara (GRT), southwestMadagascar, which was intensively studied in the 1960s and has been highly degraded since the 1980s. We analyzed the socialand ecological published and unpublished literature on this region and provide new data to assess the magnitude of the changesand evaluate the causes of reef degradation. Top-down controls were identified as the major drivers: human population growthand migrations, overfishing, and climate change, specifically decreased rainfall and rising temperature. Water quality has notchanged since originally studied, and bottom-up control was ruled out. The identified network of social–ecological processesacting at different scales implies that decision makers will face complex problems that are linked to broader social, economic,and policy issues. This characterizes wicked problems, which are often dealt with by partial solutions that are exploratory andinclude inputs from various stakeholders along with information sharing, knowledge synthesis, and trust building. A hybridapproach based on classical fishery management options and preferences, along with monitoring, feedback and forums forsearching solutions, could move the process of adaptation forward once an adaptive and appropriately scaled governance systemis functioning. This approach has broad implications for resources management given the emerging climate change and multiplesocial and environmental stresses
