摘要：Due to climate change, forests are likely to face new hazards, which may require adaptation of our existingsilvicultural practices. However, it is difficult to imagine a forest management approach that can simultaneously minimize allrisks of damage. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been developed to help decision makers choose between actionsthat require reaching a compromise among criteria of different weights. We adapted this method and produced a multicriteriarisk analysis (MCRA) to compare the risk of damage associated with various forest management systems with a range ofmanagement intensity. The objective was to evaluate the effect of four forest management alternatives (FMAs) (i.e., close tonature, extensive management with combined objectives, intensive even-aged plantations, and short-rotation forestry for biomassproduction) on biotic and abiotic risks of damage in eight regional case studies combining three forest biomes (Boreal, Continental,Atlantic) and five tree species (Eucalyptus globulus, Pinus pinaster, Pinus sylvestris, Picea sitchensis, and Picea abies) relevantto wood production in Europe. Specific forest susceptibility to a series of abiotic (wind, fire, and snow) and biotic (insect pests,pathogenic fungi, and mammal herbivores) hazards were defined by expert panels and subsequently weighted by correspondinglikelihood. The PROMETHEE ranking method was applied to rank the FMAs from the most to the least at risk. Overall, riskwas lower in short-rotation forests designed to produce wood biomass, because of the reduced stand susceptibility to the mostdamaging hazards. At the opposite end of the management intensity gradient, close-to-nature systems also had low overall risk,due to lower stand value exposed to damage. Intensive even-aged forestry appeared to be subject to the greatest risk, irrespectiveof tree species and bioclimatic zone. These results seem to be robust as no significant differences in relative ranking of the fourFMAs were detected between the combinations of forest biomes and tree species
