摘要：This paper shows how, with the aid of computer models developed in close collaboration with decision makersand other stakeholders, it is possible to quantify and map how policy decisions are likely to affect multiple ecosystem servicesin future. In this way, potential trade-offs and complementarities between different ecosystem services can be identified, so thatpolicies can be designed to avoid the worst trade-offs, and where possible, enhance multiple services. The paper brings togetherevidence from across the Rural Economy and Land Use Programme's Sustainable Uplands project for the first time, withpreviously unpublished model outputs relating to runoff, agricultural suitability, biomass, heather cover, age, and utility for RedGrouse (Lagopus scotica), grass cover, and accompanying scenario narratives and video. Two contrasting scenarios, based onpolicies to extensify or intensify land management up to 2030, were developed through a combination of interviews anddiscussions during site visits with stakeholders, literature review, conceptual modeling, and process-based computer models,using the Dark Peak of the Peak District National Park in the UK as a case study. Where extensification leads to a significantreduction in managed burning and grazing or land abandonment, changes in vegetation type and structure could compromise arange of species that are important for conservation, while compromising provisioning services, amenity value, and increasingwildfire risk. However, where extensification leads to the restoration of peatlands damaged by former intensive management,there would be an increase in carbon sequestration and storage, with a number of cobenefits, which could counter the loss ofhabitats and species elsewhere in the landscape. In the second scenario, land use and management was significantly intensifiedto boost UK self-sufficiency in food. This would benefit certain provisioning services but would have negative consequencesfor carbon storage and water quality and would lead to a reduction in the abundance of certain species of conservation concern.The paper emphasizes the need for spatially explicit models that can track how ecosystem services might change over time, inresponse to policy or environmental drivers, and in response to the changing demands and preferences of society, which are farharder to anticipate. By developing such models in close collaboration with decision makers and other stakeholders, it is possibleto depict scenarios of real concern to those who need to use the research findings. By engaging these collaborators with theresearch findings through film, it was possible to discuss adaptive options to minimize trade-offs and enhance the provision ofmultiple ecosystem services under the very different future conditions depicted by each scenario. By preparing for as wide arange of futures as possible in this way, it may be possible for decision makers to act rapidly and effectively to protect andenhance the provision of ecosystem services in the face of unpredictable future change
