摘要：Silvopastoral systems of the Swiss Jura Mountains serve as a traditional source of forage and timber in the subalpinevegetation belt, but their vulnerability to land use and climate change puts their future sustainability at stake. We coupledexperimental and modeling approaches to assess the impact of climate change on the pasture-woodland landscape. We drewconclusions on the resistance potential of wooded pastures with different management intensities by sampling along a canopycover gradient. This gradient spanned from unwooded pastures associated with intensive farming to densely wooded pasturesassociated with extensive farming. Transplanted mesocosms of these ecosystems placed at warmer and drier conditions providedexperimental evidence that climate change reduced herbaceous biomass production in unwooded pastures but had no effect insparsely wooded pastures, and even stimulated productivity in densely wooded pastures. Through modeling these results witha spatially explicit model of wooded pastures (WoodPaM) modified for the current application, results were extrapolated to thelocal landscape under two regionalized Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios for climate change. This led tothe suggestion that within the Jura pasture-woodlands, forage production in the near future (2000–2050 AD) would be affecteddisproportionately throughout the landscape. A stable forage supply in hot, dry years would be provided only by extensive andmoderate farming, which allows the development of an insulating tree cover within grazed pastures. We conclude that suchstructural landscape diversity would grant wood-pastures with a buffering potential in the face of climate change in theforthcoming decades.
