摘要：The literature on common pool resource (CPR) governance lists numerous factors that influence whether a givenCPR system achieves ecological long-term sustainability. Up to now there is no comprehensive model to integrate these factorsor to explain success within or across cases and sectors. Difficulties include the absence of large-N studies, the incomparabilityof single case studies, and the interdependence of factors. We propose (1) a synthesis of 24 success factors based on the currentsocial-ecological systems (SES) framework and a literature review and (2) the application of neural networks on a database ofCPR management case studies in an attempt to test the viability of this synthesis. This method allows us to obtain an implicitquantitative and rather precise model of the interdependencies in CPR systems. Given such a model, every success factor ineach case can be manipulated separately, yielding different predictions for success. This could become a fast and inexpensiveway to analyze, predict, and optimize performance for communities worldwide facing CPR challenges. Existing theoreticalframeworks could be improved as well
