摘要：We argue that the often-proclaimed disregard of ex-ante assessments of the provision of ecosystem goods andservices in policy-making processes is not only due to a neglect or a misinterpretation of the results of such assessments in therelevant political processes, but also due to an inaccurate inclusion of political variables into those assessments. To address thisweakness, we combine a model-based scenario analysis with a policy network analysis. Analyzing the structure of the policynetwork and taking into account the policy preferences of the individual network actors allows us to assess the feasibility andlikelihood of policy developments as derived from scenario-based modeling assessments. We demonstrate the applicability ofour approach in an analysis of potential policy measures aimed at maintaining crucial ecosystem goods and services in Swissmountain regions, with a specific focus on agriculture, which is arguably one of the most important sectors for various ecosystemgoods and services in those regions. Our results show that a production-oriented agricultural policy still has strong politicalsupport and, consequently, a status-quo protection scenario is very likely. In contrast, a more environmentally friendly agriculturalpolicy is unlikely if it leads to extensive new regulations for agricultural production. Even with a greening scenario performingbest within a set of ex-ante model-based assessments of future policy options, our policy network analysis suggests that changesin agricultural policy would have to reconcile the support of the provision of nonmarketable ecosystem goods and services withmarket deregulation policies in order to become politically feasible
