摘要：The environmental integrity of a mechanism rewarding Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation(REDD) depends on appropriate accounting for emission reductions. Largely stemming from a lack of forest data in developingcountries, emission reductions accounting contains substantial uncertainty as a result of forest carbon stock estimates, wherethe application of biome-averaged data over large forest areas is commonplace. Using a case study in the Bale Mountains inEthiopia, we exemplify the implications of primary and secondary forest carbon stock estimates on predicted REDD projectemission reductions and revenues. Primary data estimate area-weighted mean forest carbon stock of 195 tC/ha ± 81, and biome-averaged data reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change underestimate forest carbon stock in the BaleMountains by as much as 63% in moist forest and 58% in dry forest. Combining forest carbon stock estimates and uncertaintyin voluntary carbon market prices demonstrates the financial impact of uncertainty: potential revenues over the 20-year projectranged between US$9 million and US$185 million. Estimated revenues will influence decisions to implement a project or notand may have profound implications for the level of benefit sharing that can be supported. Strong financial incentives exist toimprove forest carbon stock estimates in tropical forests, as well as the environmental integrity of REDD projects
