摘要：Silvopastoral systems are traditional components of the landscape in the Swiss Jura Mountains, and are promisingapproaches for the sustainable management of mountain areas worldwide. Due to complex vegetation dynamics, pasture-woodlands are very vulnerable to the currently occurring land use and climate changes. Therefore, management requiresintegrative long-term predictions of successional trends. We present a refined version of the spatially explicit, dynamic simulationmodel WoodPaM with improved climate sensitivity of simulated vegetation. We investigate pasture-woodland dynamics byapplying an innovative combination of retrospective simulations starting in the Middle Ages with prospective simulationsfollowing two climate change scenarios. The retrospective simulations demonstrate the strong dependency of the landscapemosaic on both climate and management. In high elevation mountain pastures, climate cooling during the Little Ice Age hinderedsimulated tree regeneration and reduced forage production of grasslands. Both led to an increase in open grassland and to astructural simplification of the landscape. In turn, climate warming afterwards showed the opposite effect. At lower elevations,high cattle stocking rates generally dominate simulated succession, leading to a slow development of quite homogenouslandscapes whose structures are hardly affected by historical climate variability. Aerial photographs suggest that logging andwindstorms critically shaped the current landscape, both homogenizing mosaic structures that emerge from selective grazing.Simulations of climate change scenarios suggest delayed but inevitable structural changes in the landscape mosaic and a temporarybreakdown of the ecosystem service wood production. The population of currently dominating Norway spruce collapses due tosimulated drought. Spruce is only slowly replaced either by beech under moderate warming or by Scots pine under extremewarming. In general, the shift in tree species dominance results in landscapes of less structural richness than today. In order tomaintain the mosaic structure of pasture-woodlands, we recommend a future increase in cattle stocking on mountain pastures.The (re-) introduction of mixed herds (cattle with horses, sheep, and goats) could mitigate the simulated trend towards structuralhomogenization of the forest-grassland mosaic because diverse browsing effects selectively control tree regeneration and wouldcounteract simulated forest encroachment. This could prevent the loss of species-rich open grasslands and forest-grasslandecotones. Forest management should respect forest-grassland mosaics and ecotones by following the traditional selective fellingof single trees instead of large clear-cutting. Additionally, beech regeneration should be promoted from now on in order tosmoothen tree species replacement with warming and to ensure the continuous provision of forest ecosystem services.
