摘要：Cultural landscapes are appreciated for the plethora of ecosystem services that they provide to society. They are,however, subject to rapid and fundamental transformations across Europe, mainly as a result of intensification or abandonmentof land uses. Our objective is to assess the possible future drivers of cultural landscape changes and their likely impacts onecosystem services provision as perceived by local actors. We present stakeholder-based scenarios for the Swabian Alb, abiosphere reserve in southern Germany, projected to the yr 2040. On their basis, we explore the possibilities and limitations oflocal civil engagement for landscape conservation and development in the face of increasing global influences. The steps of theprocess are (a) identifying the key driving forces of landscape change, (b) developing contrasting narratives about alternativelandscape futures, (c) refining the narratives, (d) discussing scenario impacts, and (e) exploring local management strategies.Four contrasting scenarios created by the stakeholders are presented. Global-level drivers are state support/regulations vs. free-market economy, and energy-intensive lifestyles vs. low-energy economy. Local-level forces are high vs. low consumer demandfor localized food, and high vs. low appreciation of local cultural landscapes. Outcomes show that cultural landscape developmentmay come to a crossroads over the next 30 yrs, with either combined land abandonment and landscape industrialization scenariosor multifunctional, locally distinct landscape futures being possible. The scenario narratives envision that the most powerfulway to develop and protect distinct landscapes is to foster local people's links to cultural landscapes, to build social capitalaround them, and to direct consumption patterns toward localized food production. We find that participatory scenario processeshave strengths in terms of the credibility, transferability, and confirmability of the insights gained, but are often weak in ensuringdependability
关键词：ecosystem services: landscape development ; participatory scenario planning; Germany; multifunctional;landscapes; regional development; quality of life; rural areas
