期刊名称：Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis in Social Sciences
印刷版ISSN：1752-8925
出版年度：2009
卷号：3
期号：1
页码：21-36
出版社：Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis in Social Sciences
摘要：The ERM crisis of 1992 in the UK appears to have been preceded by a perio d of steadily worseninggrowth and unemployment which, due to the constraint of ERM membership, monetary policy changescould not b e used to o.set. These features do not seem to conform to the 'escape-clause' crisis mo delbased on the REH. We show that by adopting b ounded rational learning, the 'escape-clause' modeldoes yield a trade-o. between the size and persistence of sho cks leading to devaluation, a finding thatmakes the model more clearly applicable to this crisis episo de
关键词：ERM crises; REH; boundedly rational learning; VAR models
