期刊名称：Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance / School of Economics, Mathematics and Statistics, Birkbeck College
印刷版ISSN：1745-8587
出版年度：2003
卷号：2003
出版社：London University
摘要：The paper investigates Jamaican Terms of Trade, the persistence of shocks and the nature of the feedback process. Examination of the autoregressive feedback relationship for the period since 1960, suggested that feedbacks were significant but had finite persistence. However, when allowance was made for a structural break the autoregressive effect became insignificant and the behaviour of the NBTT showed no shock persistence. The implication drawn from these findings is that trade windfalls should be seen as temporary, so that a Jamaican policy response should seek to smooth the consumption effect. Government policy in the 1970’s acted as if the positive shock would be persistent and as a consequence created a virtual Dutch Disease scenario.
关键词：terms of trade; natural resources; Dutch Disease; Jamaica
